This year, Kalshi, an online platform that allows users to trade and bet on the outcome of real-world events, recently began to allow people to place bets on which presidential candidates they think will win.
The idea of betting on the next president of the United States could greatly affect the outcome of the election, introducing potential risks. The idea of betting in general is disastrous, especially for the election as the results of bets could be translated into real life voting choices.
This election is seen as a very important one due to the stakes it holds. Policies by each candidate have been expressed and at this time, most voters already have an idea of who they are voting for.
On Kalshi, former President Donald Trump has been in the lead with a majority of bets being placed on him. As of one day before the election, approximately 200 million dollars have been placed on all presidential candidates, with millions more being placed as the election date comes closer.
Trump has represented the Republican party for the three times he ran for president. According to Pewresearch.org, Republicans are generally made up of upper class members and the richest people in America. Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk have both contributed or endorsed Trump due to his policies that supported upper class members with tax cuts for wealthier Americans.
Current Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has voiced her support for the middle class and improving everyday life for the majority group of Americans. With endorsements from many celebrities, Harris and her supporters strived to push one of her main policies of protecting and restoring reproductive freedom.
Differing social classes of each candidate’s supporters play a major role in betting statistics due to voter backgrounds. With Trump having more upper class supporters, more money is placed on him going into office as president for a potential second term.
With people putting in hundreds of thousands and even millions of dollars into Trump, he has been in the lead ever since betting began. Visuals of the graph showing Trump’s dominance in the election may swing people into the wrong direction. The trend of Trump winning on the site may lead voters to bet on Trump with the focus on earning money, causing them to vote for him in real life. With biases and potential misinformation, the official vote for the next president may be affected, with a higher possibility of focusing on gaining money from betting instead of the future of the country.
With hundreds of posts going out on social media every day, Kalshi has been heavily advertising their website and updating users about everything going on. Encouraging more people to participate by choosing who they favor and placing bets on them.
This election is a close one, with the Harris-Walz campaign, and the Trump-Vance campaign being almost head to head in recent polls. Anything could push one party over another, and betting is a big deal due to its large influence on real life votes.
New York Times Chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote, “With one day left in the 2024 campaign, the polls show one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American politics. Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point.”
With change in the voting process, voters can be easily influenced by trends and ideas, causing them to forget to think about what the country needs in the next four years as the future president is currently running. It is still vital that people should vote based on policies and candidates they agree with instead of being influenced by outside factors.
